Euro 2020 is fast approaching, which means it’s time for England to convince themselves that football is finally coming home. However, English optimism may not be misguided this time following a strong showing at the last World Cup in Russia that has led to the national team being talked about as genuine contenders.

The Three Lions have a wealth of talent at their disposal, albeit distributed somewhat lopsidedly. There is an abundance of terrific right-backs and forwards, a solid crop of central defenders and attacking midfielders but a dearth of quality deep midfielders and goalkeepers. Recent injuries to established internationals such as Harry Kane and Marcus Rashford coupled with breakout seasons from several number 9s means that Gareth Southgate has a selection headache. Southgate has previously said that he selects players based on form and not reputation and this philosophy could present some tough decisions for him when choosing the forwards for this summer.

Harry Kane

The obvious place to start is with Harry Kane. Over the last 5 years he has established himself as one of the best centre-forwards in the world as well as an undisputed starter for England. The fact that he is England’s captain and boasts a superb international record means that he would normally be the uncontested first choice to lead the line for England at Wembley in their group D opener vs Croatia on June 14th.

However, Kane tore his hamstring on New Year’s Day, an injury which required surgery, and is now reportedly facing a battle to return before the end of the season. Persistent injuries have contributed to Kane’s league goals per 90 minutes declining in each of the past 3 seasons and it is a similar story for his xG (expected goals) which indicates he is not getting the same quantity or quality of shots that he used to.

Whilst still an excellent player, he is no longer head and shoulders above every other English striker and, with the increased competition, it may be worth considering whether it would be beneficial starting Kane at the Euros if he isn’t fully fit. Kane has been known to rush himself back from injury whilst still not appearing to be fully fit, such as in the Champions League final vs Liverpool where he replaced hat-trick hero Lucas Moura and had minimal impact on the game.

At the World Cup in Russia, Kane didn’t look himself in the knockout rounds (despite winning the Golden Boot), lacking sharpness and not having the effect on games that he often has for Tottenham. So, whilst Kane’s resume speaks for itself, it’s imperative England have a strong selection of strikers to not only back him up but provide serious competition for his place in the XI to ensure he is only playing because he is the best option for England and not because of his reputation.

Tammy Abraham

Following a disappointing loan spell at Swansea 2 seasons ago, Tammy Abraham has now shown that he is not only a capable top flight striker, but one of the best strikers in the league. He has filled a gap in Chelsea’s frontline that had been gaping since Diego Costa’s departure, netting 13 times in 24 Premier League games this season.

The 22 year old had been prolific at Championship level, with 48 goals in 78 games as a youngster, but what has been really impressive is his all-round game which has proven he is more than a poacher. Abraham’s 6ft 3 frame supplements his strong hold-up play and he has shown an array of nice touches and combinations with the likes of Willian and Christian Pulisic. This is promising for his fit in the England set-up where he would likely play alongside 2 of Jadon Sancho, Raheem Sterling and Marcus Rashford, forming a dynamic front 3 where he can act as a perfect foil for the speedy, direct wingers. The goals have dried up a bit for Abraham of late, with only 2 in his last 9 league games but should he finish the season strongly then he’d have to feel confident about securing a place in Gareth Southgate’s squad.

Marcus Rashford

Despite being a few weeks younger than the Chelsea sharpshooter, Marcus Rashford has won 34 more caps than Tammy Abraham and will be aiming to feature in a third consecutive international tournament. Over 200 appearances for Manchester United emphasise his experience compared to some of his contemporaries and his reputation as a big game player means Southgate will have no qualms about throwing him in at the deep end this summer. He did just that at the World Cup two summers ago, subbing him on in every knockout match, though Rashford largely failed to have the desired impact.

The Mancunian has undoubtedly improved since then and was having by far the best season of his career (19 goals in 31 games) before picking up a back injury which is expected to keep him out for a few more weeks. He was starting to look as though he was on his way to becoming an elite forward and, should there be no complications with his recovery, he is almost certain to book a place in the squad for Euro 2020. One attribute he has in his favour when compared to someone like Kane or Abraham is his positional versatility which would allow him to feature as a main centre-forward, a support striker or a winger depending on what is required this summer.

Jamie Vardy

After starting sporadically for England since 2015, Jamie Vardy elected to retire from international football after the 2018 World Cup. Despite currently being the Premier League’s top scorer, there has been little indication that he intends to go back on his word and make himself available for selection again. There have been some reports he would only do so if he were offered a guaranteed place in the side and this would not be a wise choice, despite another excellent season from the veteran. Vardy has made minimal impact in previous tournaments due to a severe lack of game time and a set-up dissimilar from the one that he thrives in at Leicester. If he isn’t going to be a starter then his place as a backup in the squad would be better served going to a younger player who can learn from the experience, whilst Vardy can continue to enjoy his retirement.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin

24 games into this season, Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin has doubled his goal tally from his first 3 Premier League campaigns, currently sitting on 11 goals. He is starting more often than he did in those previous seasons, and the increased opportunity has resulted in the Sheffield native playing with a newfound confidence in front of goal. He was always a promising, all-action forward but he has now added the vital missing ingredient to his game - goals. His versatility bodes well for his Euro 2020 hopes - he can function as a target man, play up front in a 2 and has even played out wide in the past. Players like him have proved to have a place in previous England squads at major tournaments - think of him in the Danny Welbeck mould, or Emile Heskey (at a push), a complementary forward.

Callum Wilson

Callum Wilson played 3 times for England last year and looked to be on his way to cementing a place in Gareth Southgate’s squad. The Bournemouth frontman’s form, however, has nosedived since those caps and he only recently ended a 15 match goalless run in the league which has moved him to the periphery of international consideration. His manager, Eddie Howe, still believes he can secure a place in the Euro squad, but even with an upturn in form it seems the 27-year old would have to rely on injuries if he wants to board the plane over some of his competition.

Danny Ings

Danny Ings has been one of the Premier League’s surprise packages this season, almost single-handedly carrying the goalscoring burden for a Southampton side that finds itself in mid-table after a tricky start. He has scored more than 4 times as many goals compared to any of his teammates and this form has inevitably led to him being touted for an England recall, 5 years after his only cap. Whilst there is no denying that Ings is having an impressive season and no-one would begrudge him a place in the squad, he is one of the more limited striking options that England have. He is a great poacher and has a good workrate but outside of that perhaps doesn’t quite have the all-round game and versatility to match some other England options. Darren Bent was an excellent poacher and scored 24 Premier League goals in the 2009/10 season for mid-table Sunderland but was omitted from the World Cup squad that summer and it may be a similar story for Ings.

	NPG/90	npxG/90	xA/90	England record (Goals/Caps)
Tammy Abraham	0.61	0.55	0.11	1/4
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	0.60	0.54	0.05	0/0
Danny Ings	0.73	0.58	0.07	0/1
Harry Kane	0.46	0.27	0.09	32/45
Marcus Rashford	0.43	0.40	0.13	10/38
Raheem Sterling*	0.51	0.50	0.27	12/56
Jamie Vardy	0.76	0.57	0.15	7/26
Callum Wilson	0.30	0.32	0.10	1/4

NPG/90 = non-penalty goals per 90 minutes

npxG/90 = non-penalty expected goals per 90. Indicates the quality of chances the striker is getting per 90 minutes and therefore the number of goals the striker is expected to score, on average.

xA/90 = expected assists per 90 assists. Indicates the quality of chances the striker is creating for his teammates and therefore the number of assists he is expected to get, on average.

England strikers at recent tournaments

When going over England’s forwards, it’s worth taking a look at what they have historically done in regards to squad selection to get a feel for what they may do this summer. In the 5 major tournaments last decade, they would typically take 4 or 5 striking options. Amongst these, there is a wide range of profiles: poacher (Defoe), target man (Crouch), speed demon (Vardy), second striker (Rooney), all-rounder (Kane) etc. Target men such as Crouch, Carroll, Lambert, Heskey have fallen out of fashion in recent years as in 2018 England opted for 4 pacey strikers in the squad alongside Harry Kane. This would seemingly have been to provide a counter-attacking threat, though the quartet didn’t manage a goal between them. Vardy and Rashford offered many of the same strengths and it is arguable that having them plus Danny Welbeck made each other redundant and a different profile of striker would have been preferable. Abraham and Calvert-Lewin were still playing for the U21s at this time but both have developed significantly since then and present different options to the likes of Rashford and Raheem Sterling.

Tournament	Striker 1	Striker 2	Striker 3	Striker 4	Striker 5
2010 World Cup	Wayne Rooney	Emile Heskey	Jermain Defoe	Peter Crouch	-
Euro 2012	Wayne Rooney	Andy Caroll	Danny Welbeck	Jermain Defoe	-
2014 World Cup	Daniel Sturridge	Wayne Rooney**	Danny Welbeck**	Rickie Lambert	-
Euro 2016	Harry Kane	Jamie Vardy	Daniel Sturridge**	Marcus Rashford**	Wayne Rooney**
2018 World Cup	Harry Kane	Raheem Sterling*	Marcus Rashford	Jamie Vardy	Danny Welbeck

*Not a natural striker, but played as a striker in this tournament

**Normally a striker, but often played in a different position this tournament.

Past Champions’ forward options

World and European champions typically took fewer strikers than England did last decade. Whilst simply taking fewer numbers, they would also play midfielders like Mario Gotze or Cesc Fabregas as the most advanced attackers which gave them the option of utilising an extra body to beef up the midfield and overwhelm the opposition. Despite England moving away from a traditional target man up top in recent years, the current World Champions found great success with one. Olivier Giroud replaced Ousmane Dembele in France’s XI after they scraped past Australia in their opener and the Chelsea striker managed to have a positive effect on the team as a whole despite going the whole competition without a shot on target. Giroud allowed Kylian Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann to thrive in a way that England may hope someone such as Harry Kane or Tammy Abraham can emulate with the likes of Jadon Sancho and Raheem Sterling.

Champions	Striker 1	Striker 2	Striker 3	Striker 4
Spain 2010	David Villa	Fernando Torres	Fernando Llorente
Spain 2012	Cesc Fabregas*	Fernando Torres	Alvaro Negredo	Fernando Llorente
Germany 2014	Miroslav Klose	Mario Gotze*	Thomas Muller*
Portugal 2016	Cristiano Ronaldo*	Luis Nani*	Eder
France 2018	Olivier Giroud	Antoine Griezmann	Kylian Mbappe**

*Not a natural striker, but sometimes played as a striker during the tournament

**Normally a striker, but often played in a different position during the tournament.

Verdict

Based on what England have at their disposal, it’s important that they select a range of profiles that can each offer something different whilst at the same time complementing each other. It’s also crucial to not select any ‘dead-weight’ in the squad, like Danny Welbeck who hardly featured at last year’s World Cup. Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford and Tammy Abraham should be shoe-ins for the squad, whilst Dominic-Calvert Lewin and Danny Ings are right outside looking in. Raheem Sterling can also play up front. Sterling plus the aforementioned 3 present very strong options for an England team that could go all the way this year.